Ethan,
I'm a bit surprised you didn't introduce Bayesian probability-think to give the reader more assurance that, since we are not dead already, we can be more optimistic. Of course, Bayes didn't think much of his formula. I prefer the hard probabilities to the ones the we conjure in our expectations...even if the Bayesian ones often work, at least for awhile longer.
That said, we should just admit it that we need to bury our civilizations deep inside of planets, asteroids, etc., and not on them, give them big engines, so we can skirt away from the dangers. Underneath enough metal matter. we can also shield our life from the spying eyes of other civilizations. Thereby solving the Fermi Paradox using Bayesian Logic. I would like to have the window seat but would share it with you as the pilot.
We just have to also avoid the fiat liars that are out to destroy humanity and life as we know it by fiat lie genocide.
